Second Listening of Serial's First Season: Adnan Syed

I was late to the Serial thing. A bunch of friends told me I had to listen and finally, about 7 or 8 months ago I did. For those of you who have not been introduced to the Adnan Syed Case or the Serial Podcast, this post will not be at all relevant to you. I do recommend it, especially if crime/justice mysteries are of interest to you. Obvious spoilers inclosed.

The first time I listened, I felt very much like host Sarah Koenig about it all. There were points both in and out of Adnan's favor but probably not a strong enough case for me to find him guilty beyond reasonable doubt. I felt that his council neglected some key points and there were still so many unanswered questions - questions that plagued me from the beginning. Regardless of the lack of closure, I enjoyed the podcast very much and was even looking forward to another season (though it let me down for many reasons that aren't relevant to the main point of this post).

When I found out Adnan's conviction had been vacated this week and a new trial ordered, I decided to listen to the podcast again. This time, I dragged my husband into it, forcing him to listen to 10 hours worth of Koenig asking probing questions and offering commentary, as we took a family road trip to Santa Fe. And this time, I found myself much more critical of Adnan's story, and able to look at Jay's story with fresh eyes. I'm now more confident that Adnan is guilty, though I'm not sure that I would find him guilty beyond all reasonable doubt. Perhaps I would. I don't really know unless I was a juror, there every day listening to the case unfold.

For me, the case comes down to a few main points.

• Jay knew where Hae's car was. Therefore, there is NO QUESTION that Jay was involved. This leaves us with three possible option: 

             1. Jay killed Hae and used Adnan as the 'fall guy'.

• Why? What's the motive? By nearly everyone's account they didn't really hang out. They have mutual friends but not a single person implied a relationship between the two. Certainly not one that would lead to premeditated murder. And it would have had to be premeditated. How else could it have occurred just precisely when Jay had Adnan's car and phone to frame him? How did he know Adnan would lend him his car and phone that day?
• Perhaps Jay hated Adnan? But even that doesn't hold up. If so, why did they hang even after the murder? 
• Motive might not be necessary, but in the case of two people who have little relationship, there ought to be one. Especially when the person in question has no violent tendencies or record.

              2. Jay killed Hae with someone else and used Adnan as the 'fall guy'.

• I went over and over this one in my head, but I think it makes even less sense than Jay killing her on his own. What are the legitimate odds that a 3rd party wanted Hae dead, sought out Jay who just happened to have a casual relationship with Adnan to be his accomplice. 
• Also, who? Maybe the 'arab' sounding guy who tipped off the police to Adnan in the first place? That was always fishy, but again, how does that tie to Jay who we know is involved? Who would he be trying to protect by singling out Adnan? 
• And what are the odds that on this very day the murder is to happen, Adnan OFFERS Jay his car and phone of his own volition? 

              3. Jay is telling the truth and Adnan killed Hae.

• It isn't as if his story is not without problems. There is the Asia Alibi, but as the timeline for Hae's death is not set in stone, that alibi holds less weight. 
• Jay's story has a number of strange inconsistencies that hurt his credibility, but the main points of his story remain the same. And the main points of his story mostly match the cell phone records. 
• Adnan spent most of his evening with Jay. He lent his car and phone to Jay without Jay even asking (by his own account) making it highly improbable that a murder conspiracy to frame Adnan could have existed. Jay wouldn't have had any idea he'd have access to the car and phone in time to have planned the murder. 
• Jay says Adnan was going to try to get into Hae's car by asking for a ride. Something Adnan categorically denies. Only...there are two separate and compelling witnesses that say he asked her for a ride. Sure, Adnan could have forgotten that he asked, but he seems to know he didn't. It's a red flag. 
• It is more likely that Jay's account is true than that it is a conspiracy to frame Adnan.

• Jay mentioned Adnan as the killer to friends before he ever talked to the police. Specifically, Jen who says she helped him dispose of his clothes. 
• It is worth noting that their (Jay and Jen's) stories often deviated. 
• Personal theory: Jay and Jen concocted a story together to minimize Jay's involvement in burying Hae's body. That's why, at first, Jay says he didn't help, but later admits he did. It would explain why Jen and Jay both had a story with the same outline but different details and would explain some of the inconsistencies as well.
  
• It was Stephanie's  (a close friend) birthday, a day that Adnan spent much of his time with Jay (something he himself said was not common), a day he lent both his car and BRAND NEW phone to Jay (again, something that would not have been common by Adnan's own account), and he got a call from the police about Hae being missing. This was not an ordinary day. How can he not remember any details? Expecting him to remember everything is unreasonable, but expecting him to remember nothing is also unreasonable.
  
• Why didn't he call Hae when he found out she was missing?
  
• The Nisha Call

• Regardless of the fact that the call where Nisha talked to Jay may have been on a different day, there is a 2m 22s phone call made to her when Adnan claims he didn't have the phone. It is already taking a leap to think that this was a result of a 'butt dial'. You must leap further to assume the phone rang and rang and rang for more than two minutes. You must further leap that this would just so happen to take place right in the middle of the time Adnan cannot account for but that Jay says they are together. 
• I want more here. I could possibly accept the improbability of Adnan's account if it were the only glaring coincidence.
  
• Leakin Park Cell Pings along with the Mosque Pings. Because Adnan's cell phone pings at the Mosque just before pinging in Leakin Park, it means one of two things if this is considered reliable evidence: 
•  Adnan gave Jay his phone and car while he went to the Mosque for Jay to bury Hae alone
• Adnan was picked up from the Mosque by Jay to bury the body together. 
• Both implicate Adnan.
  
• Circumstantial evidence is still evidence. Would it be nice if we had a nice fat fingerprint around her neck? Yes. At this point, that seems unlikely. But cases can be successfully built on circumstantial evidence and still show guilty beyond reasonable doubt. 

There are a number of smaller things, and of course I also find myself questioning even what I know. This is the frustrating part about a case with holes in it and a defendant that is, inarguably, likable and charismatic. Still, to paraphrase one producer of Serial: If Adnan is innocent, he's one of the most unlucky people on the planet for all of these coincidences to have aligned on this one day implicating him.

What do you guys think?