IOWA: Predictions and Pre-Caucus Commentary

It's that time. After what seems like an endless campaign we are about to get the first real numbers in on any of the candidates in this 2016 Presidential Primary Election. Let me start out by cautioning anyone who seeks to look to Iowa as a guidepost for the nomination - Iowa gets it wrong - often. Iowa GOP is much more socially conservative than the rest of the country. It also has a hard-on for corn subsidies which many Republicans in the rest of the country would see as a bad thing. For reference, don't forget Mike Huckabee won the GOP Caucus in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

Also, let's not forget that polls are not nearly as accurate for the Iowa Caucus as they are for traditional primaries. The very nature of caucusing makes votes a little more fluid and open to manipulation. But, let's first look at what the polls are saying. Added together, it looks like Iowa will come down roughly like this:

GOP

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Paul
Huckabee
Kasich
Florina
Christie
Santorum


DEM

Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley

Personally, I'm not exactly sure about these rankings. I can easily see Trump winning, but I think by a lesser margin than predicted. I also think Rand Paul will do better. He caucuses well. His father before him caucused well. With the right turnout, and with the number of Independents registering as Republicans in this particular state, Paul has a good chance of making headlines tomorrow.

Cruz will remain strong, but I think Rubio will too. If Rubio pushes into second place, he's the story of the night. If he gives a strong third place performance, he ends up doing well enough to make it to the New  Hampshire primary in a strong place. If Bush finishes fifth or lower, it's bad news for him. I anticipate he'll stay in until Florida, which he's hoping to be able to win, but a fifth place or lower in Iowa and New Hampshire will probably kill his chances. The last candidate that waited out until Florida to be competitive paid for it dearly (see: Rudy Giuliani).

This is how I see it shaking out:

GOP

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Paul
Bush
Kasich
Carson
Christie
Huckabee
Florina
Santorum

DEM

Sanders/Clinton - toss up. Not going to call this one because I really don't know.
O'Malley

You might be surprised to see how far Carson come in on my list as he's polled 10% in one poll (i seriously question that number). Frankly, I think Carson has nowhere to go but down. He's a nice guy, but in comparison to his fellow candidates, he's not compelling. That whole 'outsider' credential he has is already being eaten up by other candidates. He's plummeted in the most recent polls, and I do not think he's doing nearly as well as the media believes.

But here is what you can expect to hear in terms of 24 hour news media.

1. Democratic pundits will be way overstating Trump's win, if he wins. They want Trump as the GOP nominee. He's an incredibly easy target and allows for their favorite talking point - Republicans are racist, sexist, Islamaphobes - to resonate better than ever before. Take what they say with a grain of salt. They will downplay any progress made by Rubio or Paul, as both candidates have a reasonably good chance or winning against Hillary Clinton.

2. Democratic pundits will downplay a win by Bernie Sanders. If Sanders wins or comes very close to winning Iowa, Democratic talking heads will be very quick to remind that he cannot do well in other states and Iowa isn't that important anyway. Note the difference between to tone here. If Trump wins, it's a done deal. If Sanders wins, oh...who cares?

3. GOP pundits will be cautious about Trumps chances unless they are Trump supporters. Likely you'll see people looking to Cruz as the savior from Trump and they will belabor that point.

4. The media itself will desperately try to make Iowa relevant. The momentum candidates get from Iowa and New Hampshire is almost entirely media created. In reality, neither state should have much baring on what you, as a voter, do or think. Trump can win both and still easily lose the Primary. You do not have to buy the narrative that these particular slices of public opinion have relevance to you specifically.

So, there you have it. I anticipate a decent night for Paul and Rubio. I think Trump will eek out a win but barely, and that is bad news for him, in my humble opinion. We'll see if I'm right.