First and foremost, I encourage everyone to read this excellent piece in the Wall Street Journal: How to Get Beyond Our Political Tribalism. Our polarized society is unsustainable and possibly a bigger threat to our existence than either Trump or Clinton could have ever be. Watching pundits and voters make excuses for the inexcusable and attack the nearly imperceptible in the opposition, I've sadly come to the conclusion that if Republicans put up Hitler and Democrats put up Stalin, each team would dogmatically and passionately support their trash heap of a candidate to the end. This is not good. This is not sustainable. We've lost the ability to critique our own candidates or give reasonable benefit of the doubt to the opposition. We also don't debate issues anymore. We debate politicians. When was the last time you saw a policy issue picked apart in detail by the media or candidates? We debate personalities and character traits instead. Trump is a sexist pig! Clinton is a mean bitch! Never mind both of them are promoting problematic policy.
And, more than any other election, this polarized environment has also highlighted the political 'purity' with which we conduct our lives and friendships. Family members had stopped speaking to each other. Friends have stopped being friends. Facebook feeds have been 'purified' of any offending opposition material. People watch Fox, or MSNBC, or CNN, or whatever news channel they watch to hear their own opinions spouted back to them, not to hear facts. And for this reason, most voters are woefully out of touch with reality about either candidate. The age of 'false news' hit an all-time high this year with Snopes and other fact checkers working overtime to explain to the public: No. Podesta didn't say he wanted to sacrifice children in a Satanic Ritual. And No. Trump didn't say he was going to deport Lin-Manuel Miranda even though the actor is from Puerto Rico, which is US territory. People, desperate to believe the worst about the opponent, shared these fake news stories far and wide and often didn't want to hear that the news was fake.
At the end of the day, though, come November 9th, we need to decide what kind of nation we want to be? Do we want to be this insanely divided on even the most trivial matters? Do we want to hate 40-50% of the country because they disagree with us? Listen, at the end of the day, 90-95% of voters won't have voted for MY candidate. I find Trump and Clinton both repulsive. That doesn't mean i have to find all of their supporters repulsive. The racist ones? Sure. I don't have to like them. but what about the millions of American voters voting for Trump or Clinton not because they really love either of those candidates but because they have been given two shitty options by this flawed system? And yes, you can stop all the think pieces on how 'If you vote for Trump you are a racist/sexist/asshole' or 'If you vote for Clinton you support a criminal in the white house!' ...This is outrageous, erroneous, and divisive bullshit. Some people are weighing options and coming to the conclusion that one candidate is marginally better than they other. That's no crime.
Personally, my hopes are for Clinton to win the Presidential race and Republicans to keep the House and Senate (though I'm skeptical of the latter). I think Clinton, with all her flaws, is more Presidential and more educated on policy. Even if she makes bad choices (which seems inevitable) she has the basis of knowledge to make educated bad choices. Trump, on the other hand, will likely make bad choices based on whims, which could be much more dangerous. But, even if I'm 'less scared' of Clinton, I know what she will do with a Democratic House and Senate blank check. If you think Obamacare was bad... So, I think the best any of us can hope for is gridlock. And who knows, maybe Hillary Clinton will take a page from her husband Bill and work in coordination with Republican lawmakers. Something Obama has failed to do. This may do wonders for the concept of depolarization.
Predictions for Tomorrow:
Presidential
Unless polls are completely off or mismanaged (like leaving out millennials as some have), I feel pretty confident in this one. Biggest 'toss-ups' here are Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Clinton MUST WIN Pennsylvania or Florida. She doesn't have to win both. Trump needs both.
Senate
This is optimistic for Republicans, but my logic is that Trump will likely bring Republican Senate voters and Clinton will likely bring Democratic Senate voters in tight races. For this reason, I see it shaking out this way. But I'm far from confident about this prediction. Best case for Republicans is 53 seats, I think. Worst case for Republicans is about 47 seats.
House
No map here, but I think the Republicans hold the house by at least 20 seats. Best case for Republicans 40 seats. Worst case, 5-10 seats.
Happy watching, guys. And remember, on November 9th, we will all still be here and the sky will not have fallen. Chin up.
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